314 lines
16 KiB
Python
314 lines
16 KiB
Python
"""候选单复盘（只读）：这个系统唯一的评价方式——名单级观察收益，不是回测。
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## 为什么要有它
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方案（docs/主观选股改进方案_2026-09-02.md 第 2.4 节）把评价单位定为"候选单"而不是因子：
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不建仓、不计成本、不定仓位、不算净值，只看几份名单在后五、十、二十个交易日相对
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全池与主榜的超额和命中率，按环境与证据线分组，每周五出报告。它取代了原对比器
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score_lab（两套读数工具两种口径的坑），也承接了 09-02 手工归因的三组读数：
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第一步先"对账"——用 signal_close 口径复现方案 1.8b 的四档读数（强传导 −2.04、
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观察档 +0.52），证明脚本口径与手工一致；第二步再切常规口径 next_close 出周报。
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本脚本不提供权重参数，只提供分组与期限——防止复盘变成调参或模拟交易。
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## 六份名单
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生产名单 PMS 实际拿到的候选：PMS 计划快照名册（pms_plan_snapshot.roster_json）里档位为
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强传导、按分数降序前 N（N 取当时 PMS_PLAN_TOP_N，历史值不可还原，用现值并注明）；
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快照缺失的日子退为桥按同规则重算并标注
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候选单 候选卡判决为"候选"（候选卡上线日之前的历史日，按当日快照或重算得出，
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"已启动"依赖已动成员视图，视图未建的日子候选为空并标注）
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关注单 判决为"关注"
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环节名单 当日被传导指向的环节的全体成员等权（把"定位对"与"选票对"分开）
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主榜等权 当日全部主榜
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全池等权 基座行情快照当日全部个股（基准）
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## 口径
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起点价 next_close（默认，实盘买得到）：T 日出计划，T+1 收盘买，收益 = Σ pct[T+2 .. T+1+h]
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signal_close（对账用）：收益 = Σ pct[T+1 .. T+h]，与方案 1.8 系列的手工口径一致
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期限 5 / 10 / 20 个交易日
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指标 均收益、相对全池超额、相对主榜超额、跑赢全池比例（命中率）
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分组 档位、判决、吸筹三态（基座行情快照当日的 accum 状态）、事后环境（全池后 h 日涨跌，
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只作解释）、事前标签（当日快照 regime 段，上线后才有）、市值三分位（成交额除以换手率）
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## 跑法【桥机 155 · ~/project/akg-factor-bridge】
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docker compose exec -T akg-factor-bridge python plan_review.py --since 2026-07-29 --horizons 5,10,20
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docker compose exec -T akg-factor-bridge python plan_review.py --since 2026-07-29 --start-price signal_close --horizons 5 # 对账 1.8b
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只读：因子表、基座视图与行情快照、PMS 计划快照全部 SELECT；只写 data/review/ 下的报告与明细。
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import argparse
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import datetime as dt
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import json
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import os
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import pandas as pd
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import common
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import config
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import db
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import plan
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HORIZONS_DEFAULT = (5, 10, 20)
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MAIN_MIN = 150.0
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# ============================================================================
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# 数据
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# ============================================================================
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def plan_dates(since: str, until: str | None) -> list[str]:
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q = "SELECT DISTINCT trade_date FROM t_factor_akg_gate WHERE trade_date >= %s"
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args = [since]
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if until:
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q += " AND trade_date <= %s"
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args.append(until)
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df = db.read_mysql("factor", q + " ORDER BY trade_date", tuple(args))
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return [pd.Timestamp(x).date().isoformat() for x in df["trade_date"]]
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def price_panel(since: str, days_after: int = 30) -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""基座行情快照：trade_date × 前缀码 -> 日涨幅（百分数）。"""
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end = (dt.date.fromisoformat(since) + dt.timedelta(days=200)).isoformat()
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df = db.read_pg(
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"SELECT trade_date, code, (metrics->>'pct_change')::float AS pct, "
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"metrics->'accum'->>'state' AS accum FROM mkt_daily "
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"WHERE kind='stock' AND trade_date >= %s AND trade_date <= %s", (since, end))
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df["k"] = df["code"].map(common.to_prefix)
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df["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["trade_date"]).dt.date.astype(str)
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return df
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def cap_bucket(day: str) -> dict[str, str]:
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"""市值三分位（成交额除以换手率的近似流通市值），同日分桶。读不到返回空。"""
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try:
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df = db.read_mysql(
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"factor", "SELECT symbol, amount, turnoverrate FROM gp_day_data "
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"WHERE DATE(`timestamp`) = %s AND turnoverrate > 0 AND amount > 0", (day,))
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except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
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print(f" （市值分桶读取失败 {day}: {e!r}）")
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return {}
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if df.empty:
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return {}
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df["k"] = df["symbol"].astype(str).str.strip().map(common.to_prefix)
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df["mv"] = df["amount"] / df["turnoverrate"]
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try:
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df["cap"] = pd.qcut(df["mv"], 3, labels=["小盘", "中盘", "大盘"])
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except ValueError:
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return {}
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return dict(zip(df["k"], df["cap"].astype(str)))
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def pms_roster(day: str) -> tuple[list[str], str]:
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"""PMS 当日拿到的生产名单：计划快照名册里档位强传导、按分数序前 N。返回 (代码, 注记)。"""
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try:
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df = db.read_mysql(
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"pms", "SELECT roster_json, fetched_at FROM pms_plan_snapshot "
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"WHERE plan_date = %s ORDER BY id DESC LIMIT 1", (day,))
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n_df = db.read_mysql(
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"pms", "SELECT param_value FROM pms_runtime_param WHERE param_key='PMS_PLAN_TOP_N'")
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except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
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return [], f"PMS 快照读取失败（{e!r}），生产名单退为桥重算"
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if df.empty:
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return [], "PMS 无当日快照，生产名单退为桥重算"
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n = int(n_df.iloc[0, 0]) if not n_df.empty else 30
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roster = json.loads(df.iloc[0]["roster_json"] or "[]")
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rows = [r for r in roster if str(r.get("t") or "") == "强传导" and str(r.get("b") or "main") == "main"]
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rows.sort(key=lambda r: -(r.get("s") or 0))
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return [common.to_prefix(str(r["c"]).strip()) for r in rows[:n] if r.get("c")], \
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f"PMS 快照名册（N={n} 为现值，历史 N 不可还原）"
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# ============================================================================
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# 收益
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# ============================================================================
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def forward(pivot: pd.DataFrame, days: list[str], day: str, h: int, start: str) -> pd.Series | None:
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"""从 day 起按口径取后 h 日累计涨幅（每票）。数据不够返回 None。"""
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if day not in days:
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return None
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i = days.index(day)
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lo = i + (2 if start == "next_close" else 1)
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hi = lo + h # 切片 [lo, hi)
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if hi > len(days):
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return None
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block = pivot.loc[days[lo:hi]]
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return block.sum(min_count=h)
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def _md(df: pd.DataFrame) -> str:
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"""自己拼 Markdown 表：桥镜像没装 tabulate，pandas.to_markdown 用不了。"""
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if df is None or df.empty:
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return "（无数据）"
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cols = [str(c) for c in df.columns]
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lines = ["| " + " | ".join(cols) + " |", "|" + "---|" * len(cols)]
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for _, r in df.iterrows():
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lines.append("| " + " | ".join("" if (isinstance(v, float) and pd.isna(v)) else str(v)
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for v in r.tolist()) + " |")
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return "\n".join(lines)
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def summarize(ret: pd.Series, codes: list[str], base_all: float, base_main: float) -> dict | None:
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r = ret.reindex([c for c in codes if c in ret.index]).dropna()
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if r.empty:
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return None
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return {"n": int(len(r)), "ret": round(float(r.mean()), 2),
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"excess_all": round(float(r.mean() - base_all), 2),
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"excess_main": round(float(r.mean() - base_main), 2) if base_main is not None else None,
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"beat": round(float((r > base_all).mean() * 100), 1)}
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# ============================================================================
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# 主流程
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# ============================================================================
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def run(since: str, until: str | None, horizons: tuple, start: str, out_dir: str,
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with_cards: bool = True) -> dict:
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days_plan = plan_dates(since, until)
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if not days_plan:
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raise SystemExit("区间内没有档位日。")
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px = price_panel(since)
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pivot = px.pivot_table(index="trade_date", columns="k", values="pct")
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days = sorted(pivot.index.tolist())
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accum_by_day = {d: dict(zip(g["k"], g["accum"])) for d, g in px.groupby("trade_date")}
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rows, notes = [], []
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for day in days_plan:
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try:
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data = plan.collect(day, top=5000, obs_top=5000, theme_cap=0)
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except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
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notes.append(f"{day}: 计划重算失败 {e!r}")
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continue
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full = data.get("_full") or {}
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main_rows, obs_rows = full.get("main", []), full.get("observe", [])
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main_codes = [r["code"] for r in main_rows]
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obs_codes = [r["code"] for r in obs_rows]
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tier_of = {r["code"]: r.get("tier") for r in main_rows}
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verdict_of = {r["code"]: r.get("verdict") for r in main_rows + obs_rows}
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seg_codes = sorted({r["code"] for r in main_rows + obs_rows if r.get("evidence")})
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prod, prod_note = pms_roster(day)
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if not prod:
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prod = [r["code"] for r in main_rows if r.get("tier") == "强传导"][:100]
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cands = [r["code"] for r in data.get("candidates") or []]
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watch = [r["code"] for r in data.get("watch") or []]
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caps = cap_bucket(day)
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acc = accum_by_day.get(day, {})
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reg = None
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try:
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import regime
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reg = regime.read_from_snapshot(day)
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except Exception: # noqa: BLE001
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reg = None
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for h in horizons:
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ret = forward(pivot, days, day, h, start)
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if ret is None:
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continue
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base_all = float(ret.dropna().mean())
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main_ret = ret.reindex([c for c in main_codes if c in ret.index]).dropna()
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base_main = float(main_ret.mean()) if not main_ret.empty else None
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regime_post = "涨周" if base_all > 0 else "跌周"
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regime_pre = (("弱势日" if reg.get("weak_day") else "非弱势日")
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if reg and reg.get("weak_day") is not None else "无标签")
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lists = {
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"生产名单": prod, "候选单": cands, "关注单": watch, "环节名单": seg_codes,
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"主榜等权": main_codes, "观察档等权": obs_codes,
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"全池等权": list(ret.dropna().index),
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}
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for name, codes in lists.items():
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s = summarize(ret, codes, base_all, base_main)
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if s:
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rows.append({"date": day, "h": h, "list": name, "group": "全部",
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"regime_post": regime_post, "regime_pre": regime_pre, **s})
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# 分组：档位、判决、吸筹三态、市值
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for tier in ("强传导", "弱传导", "无传导"):
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codes = [c for c, t in tier_of.items() if t == tier]
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s = summarize(ret, codes, base_all, base_main)
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if s:
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rows.append({"date": day, "h": h, "list": "主榜", "group": f"档位={tier}",
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"regime_post": regime_post, "regime_pre": regime_pre, **s})
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for v in ("候选", "关注", "仅展示"):
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codes = [c for c, vv in verdict_of.items() if vv == v]
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s = summarize(ret, codes, base_all, base_main)
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if s:
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rows.append({"date": day, "h": h, "list": "档位表", "group": f"判决={v}",
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"regime_post": regime_post, "regime_pre": regime_pre, **s})
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for st_label, pred in (("明确吸筹", lambda s: str(s).startswith("明确")),
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("潜在吸筹", lambda s: str(s).startswith("潜在")),
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("其他", lambda s: not (str(s).startswith("明确") or str(s).startswith("潜在")))):
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codes = [c for c, s in acc.items() if s and pred(s)]
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s = summarize(ret, codes, base_all, base_main)
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if s:
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rows.append({"date": day, "h": h, "list": "全池", "group": f"吸筹={st_label}",
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"regime_post": regime_post, "regime_pre": regime_pre, **s})
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if caps:
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for cap in ("小盘", "中盘", "大盘"):
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codes = [c for c in cands if caps.get(c) == cap]
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s = summarize(ret, codes, base_all, base_main)
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if s:
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rows.append({"date": day, "h": h, "list": "候选单", "group": f"市值={cap}",
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"regime_post": regime_post, "regime_pre": regime_pre, **s})
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notes.append(f"{day}: 主榜 {len(main_codes)} 观察 {len(obs_rows)} 候选 {len(cands)} "
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f"关注 {len(watch)} 生产 {len(prod)}（{prod_note}）")
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df = pd.DataFrame(rows)
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if df.empty:
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raise SystemExit("没有任何可算的期限（数据尾部不足）。")
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os.makedirs(out_dir, exist_ok=True)
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stamp = days_plan[-1]
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csv_path = os.path.join(out_dir, f"复盘明细_{stamp}_{start}.csv")
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df.to_csv(csv_path, index=False, encoding="utf-8-sig")
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# 汇总：按名单 × 期限（全部）；按分组 × 期限；按事后环境 × 名单（只作解释）
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def agg(g: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series:
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return pd.Series({"days": g["date"].nunique(), "n": int(g["n"].sum()),
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"ret": round(g["ret"].mean(), 2),
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"excess_all": round(g["excess_all"].mean(), 2),
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"beat": round(g["beat"].mean(), 1)})
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lists_tbl = df[df["group"] == "全部"].groupby(["list", "h"]).apply(agg).reset_index()
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groups_tbl = df[df["group"] != "全部"].groupby(["list", "group", "h"]).apply(agg).reset_index()
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regime_tbl = df[df["group"] == "全部"].groupby(["regime_post", "list", "h"]).apply(agg).reset_index()
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pre_tbl = df[(df["group"] == "全部") & (df["regime_pre"] != "无标签")] \
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.groupby(["regime_pre", "list", "h"]).apply(agg).reset_index()
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md = [f"# 候选单复盘 · {days_plan[0]} 至 {stamp}（起点价 {start}）", "",
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f"计划日 {len(days_plan)} 期；样本纪律：分组样本少于一百只或覆盖计划日少于二十个只看方向；"
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f"口径切换的总样本少于六十个计划日只写方向。", "",
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"## 一、六份名单 × 期限（超额=相对全池等权，命中=跑赢全池比例）", "",
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_md(lists_tbl), "",
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"## 二、分组读数", "", _md(groups_tbl), "",
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"## 三、按事后环境分组（未来 h 日全池涨跌，只作解释，不作交易前置）", "",
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_md(regime_tbl), ""]
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if not pre_tbl.empty:
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md += ["## 四、按事前线上标签分组（快照 regime 段，上线后才有）", "",
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_md(pre_tbl), ""]
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else:
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md += ["## 四、按事前线上标签分组", "", "（区间内没有带环境标签的快照，本节待环境标签上线后出现。）", ""]
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md += ["## 五、逐日注记", ""] + [f"- {n}" for n in notes] + ["",
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"## 六、拍板建议", "", "（只列读数与选项，不改任何东西——由每周五人工填写。）", ""]
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md_path = os.path.join(out_dir, f"复盘_{stamp}_{start}.md")
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with open(md_path, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f:
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f.write("\n".join(md))
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print("\n".join(md[:8]))
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print(f"\n已写入 {md_path} 与 {csv_path}")
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return {"md": md_path, "csv": csv_path, "days": len(days_plan)}
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def main() -> int:
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ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="候选单复盘（只读，名单级观察收益，不是回测）")
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ap.add_argument("--since", default="2026-07-29")
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ap.add_argument("--until")
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ap.add_argument("--horizons", default="5,10,20")
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ap.add_argument("--start-price", choices=["next_close", "signal_close"], default="next_close",
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help="next_close=次日收盘起算（默认，实盘口径）；signal_close=信号日收盘起算（对账方案 1.8 系列）")
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ap.add_argument("--out", default="data/review")
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a = ap.parse_args()
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hs = tuple(int(x) for x in a.horizons.split(",") if x.strip())
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run(a.since, a.until, hs, a.start_price, a.out)
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return 0
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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raise SystemExit(main())
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